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    LME stays bullish despite strong US dollar; SHFE to strengthen further in the medium term

  • China Aluminium Network
  • Post Time: 2018/5/17
  • Click Amount: 277

    Base metals saw mixed trading on higher US dollar price, but LME aluminium went up slightly. LME aluminium received support and closed at US$ 2319.50 per tonne on May 16 from US$ 2313 per tonne on previous closing. After that the contract dipped to a low of US$2,302 per tonne during the European trading session last night, but closed slightly higher at US$2,311.5 per tonne. As seen by Shanghai Metals Market, the contract is likely to trade rangebound at US$2,280-2,320 per tonne today.

    As on May 16, LME aluminium cash (bid) price stands at US$ 2319 per tonne, LME official settlement price stands at US$ 2319.50 per tonne; 3-months bid price stands at US$ 2312per tonne, 3-months offer price is US$ 2312.50per tonne; Dec 19 bid price stands at US$ 2260 per tonne, and Dec 19 offer price stands at US$ 2265 per tonne.

    The LME aluminium opening stock dropped further to 1243175 tonnes as more and more metals are going out. Live Warrants totalled at 843800 tonnes, and Cancelled Warrants were 399375 tonne.

    LME aluminium 3-months ABR price is hovering low at US$ 2331tonne.

    SME and SHFE Aluminium Price Trend

    The benchmark aluminium price on Shanghai Metal Exchange increased from US$ 2300 per tonne on May 16 to US$ 2316 per tonne on May 17.

    As longs entered the market, the SHFE 1807 contract hit a high of RMB 14,825 per tonne yesterday everning. It moved rangebound and closed at RMB 14,790 per tonne. The SHFE 1807 contract also inched up overnight with support from longs. The contract is expected to trade at RMB 14,750-14,950 per tonne today with spot discounts at RMB 100-60 per tonne.  Buoyed by robust data of China's real estate overnight, SHFE base metals, except tin, rose across the board. SMM expects aluminium prices to trade rangebound in the short term and to strengthen in the medium term.

    The US dollar surged to a high on the market's higher expectations of interest rate hikes.  Weak Eurozone data released last night also boosted the US dollar. The US weekly unemployment claim is the key factor to watch today. The US dollar is likely to strengthen further and base metals are expected to see mixed trading with slower gains today. 

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