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    LME aluminium continues to struggle; may rise as USD drops in step

  • China Aluminium Network
  • Post Time: 2017/10/12
  • Click Amount: 164

    Strong demand and a low inventory level are buoying LME aluminium prices up but the contract seems to be struggling at the 5-day moving average. After closing at US$2,135 per tonne on Monday, October 9, it came down slightly to US$2,133 per tonne after night trading on Tuesday, October 10. Shanghai Metals Market observes that the light metal contract will continue to lurch higher within the range of US$2,155-2,175 per tonne on Wednesday, October 11, as US dollar dropped in step after Donald Trump disputed with the Republican Senator indicating at a possible obstruction to tax reform.

    Reuters’ technical analysis suggests that LME aluminium may retest resistance at US$2,174 per tonne; a break above the level could lead to a gain to the next resistance at US$2,196. There is a support at US$2,148- a break below the level could cause a loss into the range of US$2,125-$2,139 in the near term.

    As on October 9, LME official cash buyer aluminium price (Bid Price) stands at US$2,132.50 per tonne, cash seller & settlement aluminium price (Offer price) is US$2,133 per tonne, 3M Bid Price is US$2,160 per tonne, 3M Offer Price is US$2,161 per tonne, Dec1 Bid Price is US$2,207 per tonne, and Dec1 Offer Price is US$2,212 per tonne. LME aluminium Opening Stock or the LME aluminium inventory level stands at 1239050 tonnes, total Live Warrants is 1002700 tonnes, and Cancelled Warrant is 236350 tonnes.                             

    SME and SHFE aluminium price trend

    The benchmark aluminium price at Shanghai Metal Exchange (SME) has dropped from US$2,464 per tonne on Tuesday, October 10, to US$2,452 per tonne on Wednesday, October 11.

    Base metals on SHFE diverged from LME aluminium contracts on Tuesday. SMM thinks that the prices will continue to diverge for the next few days. The most active contract on the bourse SHFE 1712 aluminium will range RMB 16,450-16,650 per tonne on Wednesday, October 11, with a support at RMB 16,500 per tonne and resistance at the moving averages.

    In China’s domestic spot aluminium market, spot discounts are expected to range between RMB 220-180 per tonne over SHFE 1710 aluminium on Wednesday, October 11, SMM said.

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